RBNZ are further behind the inflation curve, OCR to peak at 5% by February – ANZ

New Zealand’s consumer prices rose +7.2% year-on-year in the third quarter, thus cementing the prospect of further aggressive hikes by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), economists at ANZ Bank report.

Inflation data puts a very large spanner in the works for the RBNZ

“We have changed our OCR call, and now expect the RBNZ to hike the OCR by 75 bps in both November and February before stopping to take stock. This takes the OCR to a peak of 5% by February (previously 4.75% by May).”

“Inflation remained far too strong in the September quarter, with consumer prices lifting 2.2% QoQ (7.2% YoY). While there were some big movements in volatile components of the CPI, prices across the CPI generally lifted by more than expected, which was reflected in core inflation measures continuing to rise.”

“With Q3 CPI inflation coming in miles ahead of the RBNZ’s August MPS forecast of 6.4%, and domestic inflation pressures only continuing to build, this is a very concerning inflation report for the Monetary Policy Committee.”