Nomura cuts China’s GDP growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023

On the basis of the ongoing covid risks, Nomura lowers China's GDP growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023.

Nomura lowered  China's GDP growth forecast for 2022 to 2.8% from 2.9% while that for 2023 was slashed to 4% from 4.3%.

Nomura’s Chief China Economist Ting Lu said: “In GDP terms, nearly 20% of China’s economy was negatively affected by Covid controls as of Monday, close to the high of 21.2% recorded in mid-April during Shanghai’s lockdown.”

Additional quotes

“Beijing has recently shown early signs of willingness to reopen, and it has rolled out some fine-tuning measures, but the reopening may be a prolonged process with discomfort.”

 “Many lockdowns or controls are implemented without public announcement. “

“We believe [the southwestern municipality of] Chongqing is currently experiencing the most severe local lockdown in China, based on our observation of numerous mobility metrics.” 

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