USD/IDR: Rupiah set to appreciate in the weeks and months ahead – TDS

Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.75% today. Economists at TD Securities analyze IDR outlook.

USD/IDR is a sell on rallies

BI left its 7-day reverse repo policy rate unchanged as widely expected at 5.75%. 

BI remains cognisant of any weakness in IDR and potential further tightening from the Fed, suggesting some caution before embarking on rate cuts. We continue to expect the first cut to come later in Q4 2023. 

BI noted its IDR stabilisation measures, and we think this includes capping USD/IDR around 15,000, which coincides with its 100-DMA. 

We remain constructive on IDR and expect appreciation in the weeks and months ahead. As such we think USD/IDR is a sell on rallies.