Gold has not performed poorly at all – Commerzbank

Ulrich Leuchtmann, Head of FX and Commodity Research at Commerzbank, analyzes the trap of asset analysis in times when the Dollar makes significant swings.

Asset analysis in times of USD strength

A comparison of Gold with the G10 average (excluding USD, EUR) reveals that Gold has not performed poorly at all. This only seems to be the case because the US Dollar in particular, but also the Euro to some extent, have gained against this average during this period. And because nearly everybody is looking at XAU/USD or (in case of our European readers) XAU/EUR.

In times when the Dollar makes significant swings, many USD-denominated asset prices are moving without anything idiosyncratic happening in these assets. The trap that many analysts fall into at such times is always the same: they confuse USD's strength or weakness with weakness or strength in the asset they are analyzing.

On the other hand, those who discuss USD-positive or negative arguments instead of writing about idiosyncratic factors of their own asset are getting it right. A positive example is the Gold Outlook of my colleague Thu Lan.