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6 Feb 2015
US data may come out soft and pressurize the USD – Standard Bank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Research Team at Standard Bank, previews today’s US data release and anticipates today’s NFP to print a soft figure, which might pressurize the USD.
Key Quotes
“The US payroll data will be the focus today and, after some good employment data Steve thinks that there may be some trepidation that momentum could wane.”
“We’ve seen the economy slow down in Q4:14 and there’s some survey evidence to suggest that this could have impacted employment. For instance, the employment component of the non-manufacturing ISM survey in January was a good few points below what we’ve seen in recent months – albeit still above the key 50.0 level.”
“The consensus for today’s non-farm payrolls number is 230k after 252k in December.”
“Steve thinks that the risks lie to the low side and the bias in the 89-person Bloomberg survey lies marginally to the downside.”
“The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 5.6% according to the consensus and Steve agrees with this view. It’s on average hourly earnings where there’s most intrigue following a surprising fall last month of -0.2% m/m.”
“Earnings don’t usually fall and while we have to bear in mind that real earnings will be stronger thanks to falling inflation, another slide this month would be very bad news.”
“Of course, the market does not expect this; it looks for a 0.3% m/m snapback according to the Bloomberg consensus. Steve thinks it might be short of this – but still positive.”
“In all, the data might look a little soft compared to some of the recent payroll reports, which could put a bit of pressure on the dollar.”
Key Quotes
“The US payroll data will be the focus today and, after some good employment data Steve thinks that there may be some trepidation that momentum could wane.”
“We’ve seen the economy slow down in Q4:14 and there’s some survey evidence to suggest that this could have impacted employment. For instance, the employment component of the non-manufacturing ISM survey in January was a good few points below what we’ve seen in recent months – albeit still above the key 50.0 level.”
“The consensus for today’s non-farm payrolls number is 230k after 252k in December.”
“Steve thinks that the risks lie to the low side and the bias in the 89-person Bloomberg survey lies marginally to the downside.”
“The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 5.6% according to the consensus and Steve agrees with this view. It’s on average hourly earnings where there’s most intrigue following a surprising fall last month of -0.2% m/m.”
“Earnings don’t usually fall and while we have to bear in mind that real earnings will be stronger thanks to falling inflation, another slide this month would be very bad news.”
“Of course, the market does not expect this; it looks for a 0.3% m/m snapback according to the Bloomberg consensus. Steve thinks it might be short of this – but still positive.”
“In all, the data might look a little soft compared to some of the recent payroll reports, which could put a bit of pressure on the dollar.”