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12 Aug 2013
Elliott Wavers calling for a move down to 92.52 in USD/JPY
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Based on a combination of wave counts, Fibonacci projections and Fibonacci retracements, Elliott Wave Theorists are pointing to the 92.52 level as the downside target for USD/JPY.
Three different Elliott Wave rules point to 92.52 (or thereabouts)
Elliott Wave Theorists are saying the USD/JPY cross is in the midst of wave iii of C lower with a downside target at the 100% Fibonacci projection line at 92.52. That level, they say, also corresponds nicely with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 11/2011 to 5/2013 rally at 92.61. In Elliott Wave Theory, a correction like this “ABC” correction will typically end somewhere in the range of the fourth wave of the previous five wave set. The 92.52 projected target falls within wave 4 of the previous set which occurred from February to March of 2013 and had a range of 90.86 – 94.45.
Even technicians using different disciplines echo bearish USD/JPY call
Horizontal line support created by multiple price pivots and plenty of trading congestion also comes in a around the 92.50 – 92.70 range. That’s more of an echoing of the bearish call above from the EW theorists. Perhaps more interesting is a fundamental / technical call from Citi FX’s technical team that notes that the USD/JPY has fallen 82% of the time in August since 1987 through 2011 when the Japan-US policy rate differential has been below 2% (which it is now). This would qualify as confirming evidence of the Elliott Wavers’ call above.
Three different Elliott Wave rules point to 92.52 (or thereabouts)
Elliott Wave Theorists are saying the USD/JPY cross is in the midst of wave iii of C lower with a downside target at the 100% Fibonacci projection line at 92.52. That level, they say, also corresponds nicely with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 11/2011 to 5/2013 rally at 92.61. In Elliott Wave Theory, a correction like this “ABC” correction will typically end somewhere in the range of the fourth wave of the previous five wave set. The 92.52 projected target falls within wave 4 of the previous set which occurred from February to March of 2013 and had a range of 90.86 – 94.45.
Even technicians using different disciplines echo bearish USD/JPY call
Horizontal line support created by multiple price pivots and plenty of trading congestion also comes in a around the 92.50 – 92.70 range. That’s more of an echoing of the bearish call above from the EW theorists. Perhaps more interesting is a fundamental / technical call from Citi FX’s technical team that notes that the USD/JPY has fallen 82% of the time in August since 1987 through 2011 when the Japan-US policy rate differential has been below 2% (which it is now). This would qualify as confirming evidence of the Elliott Wavers’ call above.