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27 Nov 2015
USD/CNY expected to rise despite RMB internationalization – Nomura
FXStreet (Córdoba) - According to analysts at Rabobank the internationalization process of the Chinese currency will benefit the CNY in the long run, but the depreciation against the USD is likely to continue during 2016.
Key Quotes:
“The journey will be long, but we believe RMB will become a global reserve currency alongside USD and EUR by 2030.”
“Global diversification into RMB assets will help the currency in the longer term, but we believe RMB depreciation (versus USD) is likely through 2016 given challenges to growth and economic rebalancing, the risk of further rate cuts (versus Fed hikes), questions over multi-market intervention, the government’s anti-corruption push and a structural pick-up in private-sector overseas investment. We see USD/CNY at 6.75 at end-2016.
“RMB internationalisation will be positive for China’s bond market as RMB assets are likely to become more attractive to international investors. Investment grade bonds like the sovereign will obtain support from greater foreign investor holdings, while the deepening and opening up of the onshore bond market should benefit not only domestic issuers, but also the dim sum bond market.”
Key Quotes:
“The journey will be long, but we believe RMB will become a global reserve currency alongside USD and EUR by 2030.”
“Global diversification into RMB assets will help the currency in the longer term, but we believe RMB depreciation (versus USD) is likely through 2016 given challenges to growth and economic rebalancing, the risk of further rate cuts (versus Fed hikes), questions over multi-market intervention, the government’s anti-corruption push and a structural pick-up in private-sector overseas investment. We see USD/CNY at 6.75 at end-2016.
“RMB internationalisation will be positive for China’s bond market as RMB assets are likely to become more attractive to international investors. Investment grade bonds like the sovereign will obtain support from greater foreign investor holdings, while the deepening and opening up of the onshore bond market should benefit not only domestic issuers, but also the dim sum bond market.”