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21 Jan 2016
China: Property prices continued heading north in December - Nomura
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Nomura, suggests that Chinese property prices continued to rise in December but they maintain their view of negative property investment growth due to severe oversupply.
Key Quotes
“Overall property prices continued to rise at a similar pace in December as in November. By city, price gains rose in Tier 1 cities to 1.6% m-o-m from 1.5% in November, while growth in Tier 2 cities rose to 0.5% from 0.3%. Prices in Tier 3 and 4 cities were flat.
Meanwhile, property sales growth slowed to 10.7% y-o-y in December from 16.2% in November, based on city data from the China Index Academy. The moderation came across the board: sales growth in Tier 1 cities slowed to 0.5% from 6.9%, that in Tier 2 cities to 13.2% from 17.2%, and that in Tier 3 and 4 cities to 11.1% from 17.6%.
Last year’s Central Economic Working Conference decided to boost demand to ease oversupply, while more measures will be launched to help property sales. However, we see no easy fix for the severe oversupply in Tier 3 and 4 cities, which account for 60- 65% of total property investment.
We maintain our view of negative property investment growth in 2016, which could be a drag on growth. We continue to expect real GDP growth to slow to 5.8% y-o-y from an estimated 6.8% in 2015, as we forecast a moderate fiscal stimulus (a deficit of 3% of GDP) in 2016.”
Key Quotes
“Overall property prices continued to rise at a similar pace in December as in November. By city, price gains rose in Tier 1 cities to 1.6% m-o-m from 1.5% in November, while growth in Tier 2 cities rose to 0.5% from 0.3%. Prices in Tier 3 and 4 cities were flat.
Meanwhile, property sales growth slowed to 10.7% y-o-y in December from 16.2% in November, based on city data from the China Index Academy. The moderation came across the board: sales growth in Tier 1 cities slowed to 0.5% from 6.9%, that in Tier 2 cities to 13.2% from 17.2%, and that in Tier 3 and 4 cities to 11.1% from 17.6%.
Last year’s Central Economic Working Conference decided to boost demand to ease oversupply, while more measures will be launched to help property sales. However, we see no easy fix for the severe oversupply in Tier 3 and 4 cities, which account for 60- 65% of total property investment.
We maintain our view of negative property investment growth in 2016, which could be a drag on growth. We continue to expect real GDP growth to slow to 5.8% y-o-y from an estimated 6.8% in 2015, as we forecast a moderate fiscal stimulus (a deficit of 3% of GDP) in 2016.”