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22 Mar 2016
GBP/USD headed to 1.30 on Brexit fears? - BBH
Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman explained that an ill-conceived strategy undermined by mismanagement and bad fortune is increasing the risks that the UK votes to leave the EU in June.
Key Quotes:
"Nearly everything that could go wrong for UK Prime Minister Cameron.
While many investors have anticipated the UK would remain in the EU, the increased risks will likely weigh on sterling, with potential for sharp losses. Sterling is already the worst performer among the majors here in Q1. It is from 3.3% which is more than twice the loss of the New Zealand dollar, which is in "second place" with a 1.3% year-to-date loss.
The break of $1.4230 is the first indication of that this month's upside correction is over, and a loss of $1.4180 could spur a move to $1.40. However, barring a dramatic development, investors should be prepared for a retest of the late-February low near $1.3835. Beyond there is the crisis low of $1.35 from early-2009. A move to $1.30 cannot be ruled out."
Key Quotes:
"Nearly everything that could go wrong for UK Prime Minister Cameron.
While many investors have anticipated the UK would remain in the EU, the increased risks will likely weigh on sterling, with potential for sharp losses. Sterling is already the worst performer among the majors here in Q1. It is from 3.3% which is more than twice the loss of the New Zealand dollar, which is in "second place" with a 1.3% year-to-date loss.
The break of $1.4230 is the first indication of that this month's upside correction is over, and a loss of $1.4180 could spur a move to $1.40. However, barring a dramatic development, investors should be prepared for a retest of the late-February low near $1.3835. Beyond there is the crisis low of $1.35 from early-2009. A move to $1.30 cannot be ruled out."