EUR/USD: Break below 1.0913 would shift focus to 1.08 and 1.07 - Scotiabank

Eric Theoret, FX Strategist notes that EUR/USD is largely ignoring fundamental releases while technicals favor a bearish continuation.

Key Quotes

“Fundamental releases have been largely ignored, the broader tone is dominant, and measures of sentiment are bearish as risk reversals suggest a renewed rise in the premium for protection against downside risk. Near-term event risk surrounds the release of the Fed’s June minutes given its potential impact on sentiment. Note that the ECB releases its latest minutes on Thursday, presenting downside risk to EUR as market participants look to clues relating to the menu of policy options.”

“EURUSD short-term technicals: bearish—EUR has resolved its bearish ascending wedge with a decline from the upper 1.11s, falling back to the mid-1.10s with risk toward the late June lows. Momentum signals are bearish, DMI’s are providing confirmation, and the ADX hints to a strengthening trend. A break of the June 24 low 1.0913 would shift the focus to 1.08 and 1.07. Near term resistance is expected between 1.11 and 1.1120.”