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3 Apr 2014
Session recap: A dollar is what I need
FXStreet (Guatemala) - The dollar has been favoured amongst the G10’s in the FX space during the US session on the back of improved developments in the economy of the United States.
ADP Employment Change (March) read 191K vs 195K expected. This is positive as it was close to expectations, spurring hopes for a firm US employment report on Friday. The consensus estimate for Nonfarm payrolls on Friday is for a rise of 200,000. Then, US factory orders rose 1.6% in February, and the market was expecting just a 1.2% rise. Also worth noting, US yields are were rising in the wake of the data, with US 10 year notes moving up towards resistance area seen 2.80/2.82%.
EUR/USD, forced down on 1.3760 now, has been surrounded by speculation over the ECB meeting tomorrow. While markets do not anticipate that the ECB will make any changes to rates, it will still make for an interesting meeting with respect of how exactly the ECB wish to handle the price of the euro in the current environment and whether or not there might be any changes to the lending ABS programs or SMP.
USD/JPY is sparking interest from analysts with 104 / 105 handles on the horizon. For the most part the pair has been consolidating the move from 102.80 at the start of the week that has seen the pair rise over the course of the past few sessions to over a big figure. Markets were dwelling on Japan’s Tankan survey that has put the BoJ’s 2% target into question and excluding the retail sales tax, the consensus was for a 1.5% increase in CPI this year and 1.7% on a 3- and 5-year basis – well below BoJ’s target of 2% adding further pressure on the bank to do more.
For the rest of the majors, there had been no further developments beyond any recent ranges, such as the AUD/USD being support 0.9230 after being taken back from 0.9260 on broad dollar strength before picking up slowly on a drift back towards the ceiling of the recent range.
GBP/USD was also top heavy on the session and gave back some ground making the 1.67 psychological level seem too much to take on ahead of Nonfarm payrolls at the end of the week. The ADP report was a second major factor in the under performance of the pound today after a European session that resulted in the UK unveiling a worsening Construction sector.
Major headlines:
US ADP employment report missing but close enough
US factory orders up
Fed's Bullard: Inflation is about to head higher; Fed would consider pausing QE if inflation slows further
Fed's Lockhart: Very high bar to changing pace of QE
ADP Employment Change (March) read 191K vs 195K expected. This is positive as it was close to expectations, spurring hopes for a firm US employment report on Friday. The consensus estimate for Nonfarm payrolls on Friday is for a rise of 200,000. Then, US factory orders rose 1.6% in February, and the market was expecting just a 1.2% rise. Also worth noting, US yields are were rising in the wake of the data, with US 10 year notes moving up towards resistance area seen 2.80/2.82%.
EUR/USD, forced down on 1.3760 now, has been surrounded by speculation over the ECB meeting tomorrow. While markets do not anticipate that the ECB will make any changes to rates, it will still make for an interesting meeting with respect of how exactly the ECB wish to handle the price of the euro in the current environment and whether or not there might be any changes to the lending ABS programs or SMP.
USD/JPY is sparking interest from analysts with 104 / 105 handles on the horizon. For the most part the pair has been consolidating the move from 102.80 at the start of the week that has seen the pair rise over the course of the past few sessions to over a big figure. Markets were dwelling on Japan’s Tankan survey that has put the BoJ’s 2% target into question and excluding the retail sales tax, the consensus was for a 1.5% increase in CPI this year and 1.7% on a 3- and 5-year basis – well below BoJ’s target of 2% adding further pressure on the bank to do more.
For the rest of the majors, there had been no further developments beyond any recent ranges, such as the AUD/USD being support 0.9230 after being taken back from 0.9260 on broad dollar strength before picking up slowly on a drift back towards the ceiling of the recent range.
GBP/USD was also top heavy on the session and gave back some ground making the 1.67 psychological level seem too much to take on ahead of Nonfarm payrolls at the end of the week. The ADP report was a second major factor in the under performance of the pound today after a European session that resulted in the UK unveiling a worsening Construction sector.
Major headlines:
US ADP employment report missing but close enough
US factory orders up
Fed's Bullard: Inflation is about to head higher; Fed would consider pausing QE if inflation slows further
Fed's Lockhart: Very high bar to changing pace of QE