Thailand: BoT to cut policy rate by 25bps – Standard Chartered

Thailand will release Q1 GDP data on 18 May and the Bank of Thailand (BoT) will hold a policy meeting on 20 May. The preview from Standard Chartered Bank. USD/THB trades at 32.080.

Key quotes

“We expect the BoT to deliver a 25bps rate cut at its 20 May policy meeting. We expect another 25bps cut in Q3, taking the policy rate to 0.25%.”

“We estimate a contraction of -4.0% y/y (-4.5% q/q, seasonally adjusted), which marks a sharp reversal from 1.6% growth in Q4-2019. We forecast a GDP contraction of -5.0% for full-year 2020 on a much sharper decline (-13.0% y/y) in Q2 followed by a recovery in H2.”