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29 Jul 2014
EUR/USD: Risk of further losses near term - TDS
FXStreet (Bali) - According to the FX Team at TDS, risks are for further EUR losses near term, with any rebounds (if any) to be limited.
Key Quotes
"EURUSD is nearing our 1.3385 target derived from the 1.3965/1.3665 double top but the down move may not stop there. The strength of the underlying trend lower suggests that further losses cannot be ruled out near-term."
"In fact, the bearish alignment of the DMI oscillators on the short, medium and longer-term studies suggests to us that more weakness is more likely. It also suggests that near-term EUR rebounds will be limited—if we get any significant rebounds at all."
"The early week consolidation in the spot may extend modestly above 1.3450 but we think EUR gains should remain contained to the low 1.35 area for the moment—and spot may not hold those gains for very long. Minor EUR gains are an opportunity to short or resell."
"Loss of support at 1.3479 (January) low shifts the outlook a little more negatively still for the EUR overall as it supports the impression of a broader trend change. Medium-term retracement support points near by reinforce the upper 1.33 area for the EUR but the balance of risks is shifting towards more weakness in the medium-term."
"Weakness below 1.3375/85 will imply that 1.30/1.32 is reachable in the next few weeks. From here, only a move above 1.3550 on a sustained basis relieves the bear pressure while a really through 1.37 is needed to turn the technical picture more constructive."
Key Quotes
"EURUSD is nearing our 1.3385 target derived from the 1.3965/1.3665 double top but the down move may not stop there. The strength of the underlying trend lower suggests that further losses cannot be ruled out near-term."
"In fact, the bearish alignment of the DMI oscillators on the short, medium and longer-term studies suggests to us that more weakness is more likely. It also suggests that near-term EUR rebounds will be limited—if we get any significant rebounds at all."
"The early week consolidation in the spot may extend modestly above 1.3450 but we think EUR gains should remain contained to the low 1.35 area for the moment—and spot may not hold those gains for very long. Minor EUR gains are an opportunity to short or resell."
"Loss of support at 1.3479 (January) low shifts the outlook a little more negatively still for the EUR overall as it supports the impression of a broader trend change. Medium-term retracement support points near by reinforce the upper 1.33 area for the EUR but the balance of risks is shifting towards more weakness in the medium-term."
"Weakness below 1.3375/85 will imply that 1.30/1.32 is reachable in the next few weeks. From here, only a move above 1.3550 on a sustained basis relieves the bear pressure while a really through 1.37 is needed to turn the technical picture more constructive."